Could be flac figured out it couldn't do anything so just stored with no compression and enough headers to indicate that.
This function from FFmpeg might be helpful in determining a worst case.
int ff_flac_get_max_frame_size(int blocksize, int ch, int bps)
{
/* Technically, there is no limit to FLAC frame size, but an encoder
should not write a frame that is larger than if verbatim encoding mode
were to be used. */
int count;
count = 16; /* frame header */
count += ch * ((7+bps+7)/8); /* subframe headers */
if (ch == 2) {
/* for stereo, need to account for using decorrelation */
count += (( 2*bps+1) * blocksize + 7) / 8;
} else {
count += ( ch*bps * blocksize + 7) / 8;
}
count += 2; /* frame footer */
return count;
}
edit: this would be around 1457 kbps for stereo 44.1kHz 16-bit, not including the file header
edit2: also note that the frame header is variable size, increasing as the frame numbers increase. so in reality it will be slightly less than this overall.